Celebrity Poker: Canadian Politicians Edition

I was actually almost surprised that VOCM placed their coverage of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's cabinet shuffle above their article on Tara Oram getting voted out of Canadian Idol, but then again I'm not sure if it had been the other way around they'd really be getting their priorities wrong; both events are at roughly the same relevancy to our lives in this province.

What did actually manage to surprise me, however, was that some people seem to think that Harper leaving Jim Flaherty in the position of Finance Minister is only now signalling that the Atlantic Accord business means little or nothing to Harper.

We have been following the same story, right?

This isn't like an episode of LOST where we're now suddenly realising that THERE WERE TWO ISLANDS ALL ALONG [warning: the preceding sentence contains a spoiler]; if Harper's unscrupulous nature wasn't immediately apparent on the first day of his mandate in making patronage appointments or goading floor crossing from the Liberals, then one could have assumed that his openly musing about reneging on his promise of excluding resource revenues from the equalization formula was probably a better indication that he didn't care about our feelings too much. But I understand we're still in a The X Files-esque form of foreshadowing, and that could get a little difficult to follow occasionally.

Fortunately for us after the budget was dropped Harper made it fairly clear directly in the aftermath he either didn't care about overtly breaking campaign promises or had somehow managed to rationalise it that he had in fact kept it; honestly I'm not sure which is more likely (take your pick of whichever one helps you sleep better at night). And then top himself, just to show how much he didn't care he openly asked the unsatisfied Premiers to challenge the government in court. I'm pretty sure if you added a laughtrack to CPAC no one would be able to tell that it wasn't a bastardised Canadian version of Yes, Minister.

But yet people/MPs seem to be thinking that the war of equalization between this province and Ottawa has become a non-issue only now in light of Harper's decision to hold Flaherty instead of folding him. I want to say I'm surprised that even callers in VOCM could hold this opinion, but, I'd never be able to live with myself if I uttered untruths on the internet.

I will say, however, that if this is the hand Harper wants to take into the next election, he'd better make sure his poker face and bluffing skills are up to snuff. He doesn't seem to need much practice with the latter, though.

Also: I'm aware that this is probably your source for serious political commentary but just for those of you who treat this as some kind of entertainment (you must be bored because this blog is honestly not that funny), here are some BONUS UNUSED CARD ANALOGIES:

• Harper's reshuffling his hand in preparation for the flop
• Harper must have pocket Aces if he's this brazen over the Atlantic Accord
• Harper's so conservative he treats this country like a game Texas Hold-Em (har har)
• I'm out of good card jokes so you could say I busted (we are now talking about Blackjack fyi)
• Federal Tories looking for electoral support in this province are getting a big "GO FISH" from Danny Williams, which is ironic because we have a moratorium you see

I am so sorry you had to read that.

Negotiator? But I barely know 'er!

It would appear that some earlier musings by some news outlets have actually come to fruition today, as negotiations over the development of Hebron have formally resumed.

I'm still a little puzzled about the point of it these negotiations resuming again, because the Premier has made it very clear that his position has not changed, and if that wasn't good enough for the oil companies a year ago why would the situation change in any way whatsoever? Of course, I freely admit that I am relatively ignorant of the inner workings of oil industry negotiations, and also that I suffer from a crippling lack of faith in the sheer economic might of the Glorious Empire of Newfoundland (and its colony Labrador) and the leverage it gives us to bring Big Oil to its knees. But I digress; unlike some other bloggers I'm not here to talk economics, I'm here to mocktalk politics.

Let's assume that the Premier is going to continue to be famously consistent (despite what some of you heretics might be trying to imply) and that his statements on government's position going into negotiations with Big Oil can be taken very seriously. Using a mystical and arcane divination technique of reading Tarot cards laid out on a Ouija Board placed in the centre of an indian burial ground at midnight, I have come up with the following detailed list of the events which will transpire in the current round of negotiations:

• August 10th, 2007: formal negotiations between the government of NL and Big Oil begin again
• August 30th, 2007: Danny Williams appears before an investor's luncheon in St. John's to inform them that "we are making some real headway on Hebron" and that a deal is definitely possibly in the works
• September 17th, 2007: Premier Williams launches the "official" election campaign of the PC party; appears on the steps of Confederation Building to make a speech, a large portion of which is devoted to assuring us that "the government and Big Oil definitely have some common ground through which a deal will definitely have some chance of eventually forming"
• October 7th, 2007: on the eve of the eve of Election Day the government issues a flurry of news releases to inform the public that talks over Hebron have broken new ground thanks to the Premier and that a deal is very likely on the immediate horizon; Premier Williams is praised as a great negotiator who can roll with the big companies in getting the deals
• October 9th, 2007: Election Day 2007 happens, the Williams government wins 49 seats; so many people wanted to vote PC they create an extra seat at the last minute so his majority could be larger
• October 10th, 2007: Premier Williams announces Big Oil is being totally unreasonable in their demands, negotiations break down and the oil companies are kicked out of the province; the Premier appears atop the steps in the St. John's airport to proclaim "I told you, no more giveaways on my watch!" to cheering throngs of people; Danny Williams is praised as the greatest negotiator in the history of time
• November 14th, 2007: Danny Williams pulls a Brian Tobin, cites "quitting while I'm ahead"; Tom Rideout becomes Premier again, replaces Cabot Tower with a giant statue of Danny Williams giving the finger in the direction of Ottawa; Clyde Wells is exiled to St. Helena
• October 8th, 2011: Election Day 2011 occurs; the 17 people still living in the province give the Liberals a landslide majority after they promise to negotiate with oil companies rather than the current PC policy of shooting oil executives on sight
• October 9th, 2011: Liberals sell province to Exxon Mobil, use the money to get the Upper Churchill back only to sell it away again for less; First Church of Danny Williams opens in Fort MacMurray

Okay, I mean I know I got a little off-track there towards the end but the powers that be could not contain themselves in showing me where the current round of negotiations over Hebron would take us.

And while some of you may doubt my foresight, I am so confident in my predictions that if the following set of events does not come to pass, I will personally ignore this entry and continue on with my life in an attempt to downplay the embarassment of being a debunked psychic though it will fail miserably and I will perish a broken alcoholic in a gutter somewhere down near George Street.

And that's my personal guarantee.